31 Οκτωβρίου 2019

Nikolaos Demiris

Nikolaos Demiris

Contact Details are in my web page: http://www.aueb.gr/users/nikos/


2000 – 2004:  PhD in Statistics, University of Nottingham, UK
Thesis title: “Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemic Models using Markov chain Monte Carlo Methods”.
Available online at: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10078/

1998 – 2000:  MSc  in  Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece & Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium (Second Semester)
Thesis title: “Monte Carlo Techniques in Pricing Financial Derivatives”

1991 – 1996  BSc in Mathematics, University of Patras, Greece


Jul 2016 –                      Assistant Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece
Sep 2018 – Aug 2019   Senior (Lead) Statistician, Cambridge Cancer Trials Centre, University of Cambridge, UK
Jan 2012 –  Jun 2016     Lecturer, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece
Jan 2009 –  Jan 2012     Lecturer, Agricultural University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Oct 2006 –  Dec 2008   Investigator Scientist, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK
Dec 2003 – Sep 2006    Career Development Fellow, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK


Sep 2019 –          Visiting Senior Statistician, Cambridge Cancer Trials Centre, Cambridge University Hospitals, Cambridge, UK

May 2009 –         Collaborator, WHO Collaborating Centre for Clinical Bacteriology, Parasitology, Zoonoses & Geographical Medicine, University of Crete, Greece


1996 – 1998         During my military service I was engaged in meteorological observation and weather map issuing


41. A. Chatzilena, E. van Leeuwen, O. Ratmann, M. Baguelin and N. Demiris (2019) Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan. Epidemics, to appear, freely available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100367

40. N.E. Papanikolaou, N.G. Kavallieratos, M. Kondakis, M.C. Boukouvala, E.P. Nika and N. Demiris (2019) Elucidating fitness components of the invasive dermestid beetle Trogoderma granarium combining deterministic and stochastic demography. PLoS One, 14(2): e0212182 freely available at https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212182

39. A. T. Paraskevopoulou, E. Kamperi, N. Demiris, M. Economou, C. Theleritis, M. Kitsonas and C. Papageorgiou (2018) The impact of seasonal colour change in planting on patients with psychotic disorders using biosensors. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening 36: 50–56.

38. C. Malesios, N. Demiris, K Kalogeropoulos and I Ntzoufras, (2017) Bayesian epidemic models for spatially aggregated count data. Statistics in Medicine 36(20): 3216–3230.

37. P. Pergantas, A. Tsatsaris, C. Malesios, G. Kriparakou N. Demiris and Y. Tselentis, (2017) A spatial predictive model for malaria resurgence in Central Greece integrating entomological, environmental and social data. PLoS One, 12(6):e01788361 freely available at https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178836.

36. P. Mbala, M. Baguelin, I. Ngay, A. Rosello, P. Mulembakani, N. Demiris, W. J. Edmunds, J.-J. Muyembe (2017) Evaluating the frequency of asymptomatic Ebolavirus infection. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 372 (1721), 20160303.

35. C. Malesios, P. Kostoulas, K. Dadousis, and N. Demiris, (2017) An early warning indicator for monitoring infectious animal diseases. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31(2): 329–337.

34. N. E. Papanikolaou, N. Demiris, P. G. Milonas, S. Preston and T. Kypraios, (2016) Does Mutual Interference Affect the Feeding Rate of Aphidophagous Coccinellids? A Modeling Perspective. PLoS One, 11(1): e0146168 freely available at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0146168.

33. C. Malesios, N. Demiris, P. Kostoulas, K. Dadousis, T. Koutroumanidis and Z. Abas, (2016) Spatio-temporal Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Outbreaks. Epidemiology and Infection, 144(12): 2485-2493.

32. N. E. Papanikolaou, H. Williams, N. Demiris, S. Preston, P. G. Milonas and T. Kypraios, (2016) Bayesian Inference and Model Choice for Holling’s Disc Equation: A Case Study on an Insect Predator-Prey System. Community Ecology, 17(1): 71-78.

31. Demiris N, Lunn D, and Sharples L.D., (2015) Survival Extrapolation using the Poly-Weibull model. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 24(2): 287-301, freely available at DOI.

30. G. Maniatis, N. Demiris, A. Kranis, G. Banos and A. Kominakis, (2015) Comparison of inference methods of genetic parameters with an application to body weight in Broilers. Archives Animal Breeding, 58: 277-286.

29. E. Zeki, N. Papanikolaou, N. Demiris and D. Kontodimas, (2015) Comparative demographic parameters and survival analysis of two phenotypes of Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae). European Journal of Entomology, 192(1): 193-196.

28. Demiris N, Kypraios T, and Smith L.V., (2014) On the Epidemic of Financial Crises. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 177(3): 697-723.

27. C. Malesios, N. Demiris, Z. Abas, K. Dadousis and T. Koutroumanidis, (2014) Modeling Sheep pox Disease from the 1994-1998 Epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology 11(2): 1-10.

26. G. Symeon, A. Athanasiou, N. Lykos, M.A. Charismiadou, M. Goliomytis, N. Demiris, A. Ayoutanti, P. Simitzis and S. Deligeorgis, (2014) The effects of dietary cinnamon (Cinnamomum zeylanicum) essential oil supplementation on broilers’ feeding behaviour, growth performance, carcass and meat characteristics. Annals of Animal Science, 14(4): 883–895.

25. N. Papanikolaou, P. Milonas, N. Demiris, D. Papachristos and Y. Matsinos, (2014) Digestion Limits the Functional Response of an Aphidophagous Coccinellid. Annals of the Entomological Society of America 107(2): 468-474.

24. E. Zoidis, N. Demiris, A. Kominakis and A.C. Pappas, (2014) Meta-analysis of selenium accumulation and expression of antioxidant enzymes in chicken tissues. Animal 8(4): 542-554.

23. N. Papanikolaou, P. Milonas, D. Kontodimas, N. Demiris and Y. Matsinos, (2014) Life Table Analysis of Propylea quatuordecimpunctata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) at Constant Temperatures. Annals of the Entomological Society of America 107(1): 158-162.

22. M. Baguelin, S. Flasche, A. Camacho, N. Demiris, E. Miller and W.J. Edmunds, (2013) Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modeling study. PLoS Medicine 10(10): e1001527 freely available at http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001527.

21. Papa A, Sidira P, Kallia S, Ntouska M, Zotos N, Doumbali E, Maltezou HC, Demiris N and Tsatsaris A, (2013) Factors associated with IgG positivity to Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in the area with the highest seroprevalence in Greece. Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases 4(5): 417-420.

20. N. Papanikolaou, P. Milonas, D. Kontodimas, N. Demiris and Y. Matsinos, (2013) Temperature-Dependent Development, Survival, Longevity and Fecundity of Propylea quatuordecimpunctata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae). Annals of the Entomological Society of America 106(2): 228-234.

19. P. Simitzis, D. Veis, N. Demiris, M.A. Charismiadou, A. Ayoutanti and S. Deligeorgis, (2013) The effects of the light regimen imposed during lactation on the performance and behaviour of sows and their litters. Applied Animal Behaviour Science 144: 116– 120.

18. G. Maniatis, N. Demiris, A. Kranis, G. Banos and A. Kominakis, (2013) Model comparison and estimation of genetic parameters for body weight in commercial broilers. Canadian Journal of Animal Science 93(1)67-77.

17. A. Al-Waeli, E. Zoidis, A. C. Pappas, N. Demiris, G. Zervas and K. Fegeros, (2013) The role of organic selenium in cadmium toxicity: Effects on broiler performance and health status. Animal 7(3):386-393.

16. G. Maniatis, N. Demiris, A. Kranis, G. Banos and A. Kominakis, (2013) Genetic analysis of sexual dimorphism of body weight in broilers. Journal of Applied Genetics. 54(1):61-70.

15. P. Simitzis, M. Petrou, N. Demiris and S. Deligeorgis, (2012) Effect of pre-weaning temporary isolation within different age periods on the early post-weaning behaviour of juveline lambs. Applied Animal Behaviour Science, 141:43-48.

14. Kantzoura V, Kouam M.K, Demiris N, Feidas H, and Theodoropoulos G, (2011) Risk factors and geospatial modelling for the presence of Fasciola hepatica infection in sheep and goat farms in the Greek temperate Mediterranean environment. Parasitology. 138:926-938.

13. Wang Q, MA, Rogers C.A, Bonser R.S, Banner N.R, Demiris N, and Sharples L. D, (2011) Assessing the benefit of accepting a single lung offer now compared to waiting for a subsequent double lung offer. Transplantation. 91(8):921-926.

12. Pappas A.C, Zoidis E, Georgiou C.A, Demiris N, Surai P.F, and Fegeros K, (2011) Influence of organic selenium supplementation on the accumulation of toxic and essential trace elements involved in the antioxidant system of chicken. Food Additives and Contaminants: Part A. 28(4):446-454.

11. Baguelin M, Newton J.R, Demiris N, Daly J, Mumford J. A, and Wood J. L. N, (2010) Control of equine influenza: scenario testing using a realistic meta-population model of spread. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 7:67-79.

10. Stoica, S., Goldsmith, K. A., Demiris, N., Punjabi, P., Berg, G., Sharples, L. D., and Large, S. (2010) Microsimulation and clinical outcomes analysis support a lower age threshold for use of biological valves. Heart. 96:1730-1736.

9. Symeon G, Zintilas C, Demiris N, Bizelis I, and Deligeorgis S. G, (2010) Effects of Oregano Essential Oil Dietary Supplementation on the Feeding and Drinking Behaviour as well as the Activity of Broilers. International Journal of Poultry Science. 9(4):401-405.

8. Goldsmith, K. A., Demiris, N., Gooi, J. H., Sharples, L. D., Jenkins, D. P., Dhital, K. K. and Tsui, S. S. L. (2009) Life-Years Gained by Reducing Donor Heart Ischemic Times. Transplantation. 87(2):243-248.

7. Sharples LD, Cafferty F, Demiris N, Freeman C, Dyer M, Banner N, Birks EJ, Khaghani A, Large SR, Tsui S, Caine N and Buxton M (2007), Evaluation of the Clinical Effectiveness of the Ventricular Assist Device Program in the United Kingdom (EVAD-UK). Journal of Heart and Lung Transplant (Vol. 26, Issue 1) pp. 9-15.

6. Sharples LD, Buxton M, Caine N, Cafferty F, Demiris N, Dyer M and Freeman C, (2006) Evaluation of the ventricular assist device programme in the UK, Health Technology Assessment; Vol 10: number 48, freely available at http://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/hta/volume-10/issue-48

5. Sharples LD, Dyer M, Cafferty F, Demiris N, Freeman C, Banner NR, Large SR, Tsui S, Caine N, Buxton M (2006) Cost-effectiveness of Ventricular Assist Device Use in the United Kingdom: Results From the Evaluation of Ventricular Assist Device Programme in the UK (EVAD-UK). Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation (Vol. 25, Issue 11) pp. 1336-1343.

4. Demiris N, and O’Neill P.D, (2006) Computation of final outcome probabilities for the generalised stochastic epidemic. Statistics and Computing 16, 309-317.

3. Demiris N, and Sharples L.D, (2006) Bayesian Evidence Synthesis to extrapolate Survival estimates in Cost-Effectiveness Studies. Statistics in Medicine 25(11), 1960-1975.

2. Demiris N, and O’Neill P.D, (2005) Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Multitype Epidemics in structured populations via random graphs. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 67, 731-745.

1. Demiris N, and O’Neill P.D, (2005) Bayesian Inference for Epidemics with two levels of mixing. The Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 32, 265-280.

Other Publications

Sharples and Demiris (2019) Survival analyses and censored data. A chapter in the book Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research, Edited by Lesaffre, Baio and Boulanger, CRC press, to appear.

Demiris (2009), Discussion on Rue et al, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 71, 319-392.

Kalogeropoulos, Demiris and Papaspiliopoulos (2008) Diffusion-driven models for Physiological Processes. In the edited volume of the International Workshop in Applied Probability (IWAP) 2008


A fast route to my citations is through Google scholar. They exclude paper number 7 due to a typo.


2005: Myrto Lefkopoulou Award from the Greek Statistical Institute for the best PhD thesis in the area of Biostatistics/Statistics among Greek students for the years 2003-2004.


I am about to start a 4 year term on the editorial board of Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Jan 2020 – Dec 2023)

I am on the editorial board of PLoS Medicine (as a statistical advisor) since 2011.

I just finished a 4 year term on the editorial board of Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Jan 2014 – Dec 2017)

I was on the inaugural editorial board of Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases. I resigned on October 2012.

I have refereed papers for the following journals: Annals of Applied Statistics, Biometrics, Biometrika, Canadian Journal of Statistics, Circulation, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Journal of Biological Systems, Journal of Mathematical Biology, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, B and C, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Mathematical Biosciences, Mathematical Medicine and Biology, PLoS Medicine, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Computing and Statistics in Medicine.


Oct 2019 –                   Supervisor of PhD student Tasos Apsemidis, Athens University of Economics and Business.
Oct 2018 –                   Supervisor of PhD student Petros Barbounakis, Athens University of Economics and Business.
Oct 2018 –                   Supervisor of PhD student Magda Rigkou, with Andreas Tsatsaris, University of west Attica.
Nov 2017 –                  Supervisor of PhD student Anastasia Chatzilena, Athens University of Economics and Business.
Oct 2017 –                   Supervisor of PhD student Marios Kondakis, Athens University of Economics and Business.
Oct 2011 – Jan 2015    Supervisor of PhD student Valantis Malesios, Democritus University of Thrace. First job post-PhD: Marie Curie Fellow @ Aston University, UK.
May 2009 – Oct 2012  Co-Supervisor (with Antonis Kominakis) of PhD student Makis Maniatis, Agricultural University of Athens. First job post-PhD: @ the R&D of Aviagen Ltd, Edinburgh, UK.
Oct 2006 – Jul 2010     Co-Supervisor (with Linda Sharples) of PhD student Qing Wang, University of Cambridge. First job post-PhD: RA @ the University of Basel.

I’ve also been a member in a number of advisory committes for PhD, MSc and undergraduate students.


Feb. 2019 – Dec. 2019: Internal AUEB grant (€ 3500) supporting on-going research on «Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models».
Nov. 2017 – Dec. 2018: Internal AUEB grant (€ 3500) supporting on-going research on «Flexible Stochastic Growth Models and their Experimental Design».
Nov. 2015 – Oct. 2017: Internal AUEB grant (€ 11000) «Action 1: funding excellence and extroversion» supporting on-going research on «Computationally efficient methods for high dimensional regression».
May 2015 – Dec. 2016: Internal AUEB grant (€ 3000) supporting on-going research on «predictive model selection for Bayesian Spatio-temporal models».
Jan. 2014 – Nov. 2015: Collaborator in a Greek Ministry of Education and Religious Affairs grant (€ 21800 to AUEB) from Action «Cooperation 2011» (grant no. 447919/11SYN_3_1087) on «Genomic Selection in sheep».
Feb. 2013 – Jan. 2015: Internal AUEB grant (€ 10000) «Action 1: funding excellence and extroversion» supporting paper number 28 and some on-going research on extending this work.
2003-2008: While at the MRC-Biostatistics Unit I was under the Unit’s «core funding» which covered travel expenses, computer equipment etc. Where possible I applied for additional funding, including a small (£ 135) monetary award for financial assistance to attend the 2006 Isaac Newton Institute Workshop on Stochastic Computation for the Analysis of Ecological and Epidemiological Data and a € 250 award for partial financial assistance to attend the 2006 Valencia / ISBA 8th World Meeting on Bayesian Statistics.
2000: Three year Research Scholarship Award by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.


I consult regularly on Statistical and Epidemic-related aspects for organisations like Cambridge Clinical Trials Centre, the Greek School of Public Health and Bioapplications Ltd.


2012 –                  Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business
Teaching at undergraduate and postgraduate level, including courses on Biostatistics, Bayesian Modelling, Data Science in Medicine, Epidemic Models, Survival Analysis and Epidemiology.
Also teaching Theory of Statistics to our 1st year PhD candidates.

2017 –                 Department of Medicine, University of Athens
Teaching the postgraduate course Survival Analysis, part of the MSc in Biostatistics

2009 – 2012         Department of Medicine, University of Crete
Teaching the postgraduate course Epidemic Models, part of the MSc in Infectious Diseases

2009 – 2012         Department of Animal Science, Agricultural University of Athens
Teaching the postgraduate course Biostatistics. Also involved in undergraduate teaching.

2004 – 2007         Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge
Supervisions (tutorials) for Principles of Statistics (3rd year), Statistical Modelling (3rd year) and Probability IA (1st year).

2000 – 2003         School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham
Demonstrating and marking for various first and second year Probability and Statistics modules including Probability Techniques, Statistical Concepts and Methods, Decision Making under Uncertainty and Linear Models.


Occasionally I give public lectures. At http://www.blod.gr/lectures/Pages/viewlecture.aspx?LectureID=2392 is a recent example (in Greek) on the Mathematics of Epidemics. I also spoke on the inaugural Pint of Science Greece event.


I am a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and the Greek Statistical Institute



2009-          Member of the Organising/Scientific Committee of Greek Stochastics
2011-          Member of the Committee in some of the IBS/EMR conferences
2005-2008: Seminar Organiser in the MRC Biostatistics Unit

I have been an external PhD examiner at University College London, National Technical University of Athens, Athens University of Economics and Business, Agricultural University of Athens and Democritus University of Thrace


2012 –          Member in various committees at the Athens University of Economics and Business
2009 – 2012 Member in various committees at the Agricultural University of Athens


At Workshops and Conferences:

Statistics5@Aegina, Aegina, Greece
ISPOR 2018, November 2018, Barcelona, Spain. The presentation is available here.
JSM 2018, August 2018, Vancouver, Canada
Invited Talk at ISBIS 2018, July 2018, Piraeus, Greece
Poster presented at Bayes Comp 2018, March 2018, Barcelona, Spain.
Invited Talk at the 9th EMR-IBS Conference, May 2017, Thessaloniki, Greece.
UCL Workshop on Infectious Disease Modelling in Public Health Policy: Current status and challenges, July 2016, London, UK. A video of the talk is available here.
3rd meeting in Statistics, June 2015, Athens, Greece.
Poster presented at Greek Stochastics ζ, December 2014, Athens, Greece.
Workshop on Health GeoInformatics, December 2013, Athens, Greece.
10th Summer School in Stochastic Finance, July 2013, Athens, Greece.
Poster presented at the Bayesian methods in Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, December 2012, Barcelona, Spain.
InFER2011, March 2011, Warwick, UK.
Invited Mini-Course at Greek Stochastics β’, August 2010, Lefkada, Greece.
Invited Discussant at the CFAP conference on Interconnections in Financial Markets, March 2010, Cambridge, UK.
7th World Congress in Probability and Statistics, July 2008, Singapore
28th ISCB, July 2007, Alexandroupolis, Greece.
XXIII International Biometric Conference, July 2006, Montreal, Canada.
Poster presented at the 8th Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, June 2006, Benidorm, Spain.
25th European Meeting of Statisticians, July 2005, Oslo, Norway.
Invited Talk at the ESI Meeting, May 2005, Rhodes, Greece.
Young Statisticians Meeting 2005, Dublin, Ireland.
Poster presented at the fourth Workshop on Bayesian Nonparametrics: Methodology, Theory and Applications, June 2004, Rome, Italy.
ESI Meeting, April 2004, Lefkada, Greece.
Poster presented at the Seventh Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, June 2002, Tenerife, Spain.
Young Statisticians Meeting 2002, Edinburgh, UK.
Invited Talk at the TMR Workshop on Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods, 9-11 December 2001, Lancaster, UK.
Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemic Models, Research Students Conference 2001, Newcastle, UK.

At Universities, Research Centres etc (invited seminars):

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. The abstract is here and the flyer is here.
Mapi Webinar, freely available here.
Statistics Section, Mathematics Department, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
Department of Mathematics, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
Department of Statistics, London School of Economics, London, UK.
Faculty of Business and Economics, Catholic University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
School of Mathematical Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Institute of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.
School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK.
Health Protection Agency, London, UK.

Various internal presentations in the meetings of the Epidemics Group at the University of Nottingham, the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge and the Athens University of Economics and Business.


Resident Tutor, Florence Boot Hall, University of Nottingham, 2000-2003
Member of the Basketball Team, University of Nottingham, 2000-2003